Virginia graduated 93% of its high school students in 2021, the highest rate in the state's data. Two years later, that number had fallen to 91.9%.

The decline, a difference of 1.1 percentage points, does not sound dramatic. But it represents a reversal that touched a majority of the state's school divisions and reflects a pattern playing out across the country: pandemic-era flexibility inflated graduation rates, and the correction is now underway.

The Peak Was an Artifact

During the 2020-21 school year, Virginia relaxed attendance requirements, expanded credit-recovery options, and softened grading policies. The graduation rate climbed from 91.6% in 2019 to 92.5% in 2020 and 93.0% in 2021. Then the supports were withdrawn, and the rate began sliding: 92.2% in 2022, 91.9% in 2023.

The current rate is still above the national average of roughly 87%, and Virginia was recognized as having the highest state graduation rate in the country for the Class of 2024. But the trend line is moving in the wrong direction.

78 Divisions Fell From Their 2021 Peak

Of 130 school divisions with data in both 2021 and 2023, 78 recorded a lower graduation rate in 2023. Only 49 improved. Three held steady.

The steepest drops hit divisions across the geography of the state. Colonial BeachET fell 12.3 points, from 94.7% to 82.4%. Bedford CountyET dropped 9.9 points. MartinsvilleET declined 9.8 points. Alexandria CityET, in Northern Virginia, fell 7.7 points to 83.1%, ending lower than where it started before the pandemic.

The cohort itself grew. Virginia's Class of 2023 had 98,927 students, up from 97,096 in 2021 and 98,241 in 2019. The declining rate applied to a larger number of students.

A Slower Lane to 90%

Virginia's own accountability system sets 90% as a benchmark. The state cleared it in every year of the data, but the post-peak deceleration raises a question: is 91.9% a new plateau, or the beginning of a longer slide?

The state's dropout rate tells a complementary story. It fell to 4.25% during the COVID peak year of 2021, then climbed back to 5.38% in 2023. More students are leaving without diplomas as pandemic-era supports expire.

Some divisions that spiked and crashed see 2021 as proof that more flexibility works. Others see it as a temporary illusion that masked deeper problems. Both readings are defensible, and neither resolves the immediate question facing school boards across Virginia: what to do about the students who graduated under pandemic rules but wouldn't have graduated under the ones that came after.

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