In 2023, 38 of Virginia's 132 school divisions recorded their lowest graduation rate in five years of data. At the same time, 24 divisions recorded their highest. The state is not uniformly improving or declining. It is splitting.

The Divisions at the Bottom

The 38 divisions at their worst-ever rate are not all small or rural. Norfolk City^↗ET, with an 1,800-student cohort, hit 81.9%. Bedford County^↗ET, with 710 students, fell to 82.5%. Portsmouth City^↗ET, with 991 students, dropped to 83.8%.

These divisions span Virginia's geography: independent cities in Hampton Roads, suburban counties in the Piedmont, and communities in the Blue Ridge. The common thread is not location but trajectory. Most of them peaked during the COVID-flexibility year of 2021 and have been declining since. For these 38 divisions, 2023 was worse than any year including the pandemic itself.

The Divisions at the Top

The 24 divisions at their best-ever rate include some of Virginia's smallest communities, where a handful of additional graduates can shift the percentage several points in a year. But there are larger success stories too: divisions that improved steadily across multiple years and reached a genuine new high in 2023.

The gap between the highest graduation rate in the state (near 100% in several small divisions) and the lowest (72.4% in Richmond) spans nearly 28 points. That range has not narrowed over the five-year window.

The Middle Is Shrinking

The distribution of graduation rates tells a polarization story. The divisions hitting record highs cluster above 95%. The divisions hitting record lows are spread across the lower half of the distribution. The middle, where most divisions hold steady, is where fewer of the 2023 records land.

For a state that holds the national title for highest overall graduation rate, the internal variation is striking. Virginia as a whole graduates 91.9% of its students. But that average increasingly obscures two different Virginias: one where graduation is nearly universal, and one where it remains uncertain.

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