Correction: An earlier draft averaged school-level rates and reported the wrong kindergarten rate. Virginia's published statewide aggregate was 25.2%. The corrected version also removes unsupported explanations for the change and uses VDOE's published division aggregates for local comparisons.

Virginia reported 21,946 chronically absent kindergartners in 2022-23 and a statewide kindergarten rate of 25.2%. That was the second-highest rate among the 13 grades from kindergarten through grade 12, behind grade 12 at 26.0%.

The kindergarten rate was 15.0% in 2019-20 and 14.9% in 2020-21. It then rose to 24.0% in 2021-22 and 25.2% in 2022-23. The four-report endpoint increase was 10.2 percentage points, including a 1.2-point increase in the latest report.

The grade profile falls, then rises

Virginia's 2022-23 published grade rates form a U-shaped pattern. Kindergarten began at 25.2%. The rate fell to 19.7% in grade 1, 16.5% in grade 2, 14.6% in grade 3, and 14.5% in grade 4. Grade 5 had the lowest rate, 14.2%.

Rates then rose through the later grades. Grade 11 was at 21.8%, and grade 12 reached 26.0%. The statewide files show different recent movements at the upper-grade endpoints: grade 11 fell from 23.8% in 2021-22 to 21.8% in 2022-23, while grade 12 fell from 27.7% to 26.0%. Kindergarten moved in the opposite direction, from 24.0% to 25.2%.

The comparison is descriptive. The VDOE files report counts and rates; they do not identify why attendance changed or establish that grade transitions caused the U-shaped pattern.

Thirteen divisions reported rates above 40%

The official division aggregates include 131 divisions with a published all-student kindergarten rate in 2022-23. 13 reported rates of at least 40%.

Greensville County^↗ET had the highest published rate, 50.0%, with 80 chronically absent kindergartners. Franklin City followed at 49.3%, with 36. Tazewell County^↗ET reported 48.0%, with 194. Hopewell City^↗ET reported 42.6%, with 113.

Those division rates should not be read as a causal ranking. District size, local conditions, and the number of kindergarten students differ, and the published absence files do not supply a test of mechanisms.

Kindergarten's share of the statewide count

Virginia's published all-grade total was 236,104 chronically absent students in 2022-23. Kindergartners accounted for 21,946 of them, or 9.3%. That share uses the published statewide total as its denominator.

Direct evidence: the checksum-bound VDOE files support the statewide grade trajectory, the grade ranking, the division rates, and the published chronic-absence counts. Unresourced: they do not show that parents' habits, enforcement, school options, or any particular program caused the kindergarten increase.

Data source: Virginia Department of Education chronic absenteeism downloads.

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